SIAPAKAH yang Paling TERUK oleh LARANGAN Perdagangan RUSIA ??? . . .

Srikandi גבורה - Jerman dan Poland akan yang paling kehilangan perdagangan dengan Rusia, dan jiran Finland dan Baltik menyatakan Lithuania dan Latvia akan kehilangan sebahagian besar daripada KDNK mereka. Norway akan melihat jualan ikan ke Rusia hilang, dan ganti rugi Amerika Syarikat akan menjadi sangat terhad.

Rusia telah mengharamkan ‘banned’ import buah-buahan, sayur-sayuran, daging, ikan dan produk tenusu dari 28 negara-negara Kesatuan Eropah, Amerika Syarikat, Kanada, Norway dan Australia selama setahun.

Perdagangan EU adalah sangat bergantung kepada import makanan Rusia. Tahun lepas Rusia telah membeli $16 billion bernilai makanan dari blok, atau kira-kira 10 % peratus daripada jumlah eksport, menurut Eurostat.

Dari segi kerugian, Jerman, Poland dan di Belanda 3 pembekal makanan EU keatas Rusia pada 2013 - akan paling teruk. Makanan untuk Rusia membentuk 3.3 % peratus daripada jumlah eksport Jerman.

Menteri Pertanian Perancis Stephane Le Foll berkata kerajaannya sudah bekerja bersama-sama dengan Jerman dan Poland untuk mencapai dasar yang selaras di sekatan rejim Rusia yang baru.

Tahun lepas, Ireland mengeksport €4.5 million bernilai keju ke Rusia, dan tidak dapat berbuat demikian pada tahun ini adalah satu kebimbangan besar, Simon Coveney, menteri pertanian negara, berkata.

Peladang di seluruh Eropah boleh menghadapi kerugian besar jika mereka tidak mampu untuk mencari pasaran alternatif untuk barangan mereka, terutamanya buah-buahan dan sayur-sayuran.

Ada yang sudah mendesak kerajaan mereka memberikan pampasan bagi kehilangan pendapatan.

"Jika tidak ada pasaran yang mencukupi, harga akan turun, dan kita tidak tahu jika kita boleh menampung kos pengeluaran, kerana ia begitu mahal," Jose Emilio Bofi, seorang petani oren di Sepanyol, memberitahu RT.

Pembekal makanan utama ke Rusia

Country	Exports to Russia, 2013 (in billion $)
Belarus	2.74
Brazil	2.41
Ukraine	1.99
Germany	1.83
Turkey	1.68
China	1.61
Poland	1.55
USA	1.54
Netherlands	1.42
France	1.42
Italy	1.34
Spain	1.26
Other EU countries	4.88

Sumber: Data dari Pusat Perdagangan Antarabangsa dianalisis oleh Reuters

Parti pembangkang terbesar di Greece menggesa kerajaannya menggugurkan sekatan terhadap Rusia, walaupun langkah itu tdk disokong oleh lain2 negara-negara EU.

Pada tahun 2013, Denmark membekalkan Rusia dengan bernilai $ 628 Juta produk yang kini diharamkan.

Pesuruhjaya Pertanian Eropah akan menubuhkan pasukan petugas untuk menangani sekatan Rusia, pada Isnin.

Sempadan Amerika

Lithuania dan Finland, yang kedua-duanya berkongsi sempadan dengan Rusia, boleh terjejas teruk oleh sekatan baru.

Sekarang ahli EU dan NATO, Lithuania masih berkait rapat dari segi ekonomi dengan Russia. Akaun eksport diharamkan untuk 2.5 % peratus daripada KDNK negara, menurut anggaran oleh Capital Economics.

Sayur-sayuran dan bahan makanan adalah antara 5 eksport Lithuania.

Industri tenusu Finland berdiri untuk kehilangan sehingga $ 535 Juta (€ 400 juta) dalam meludah perdagangan. Negara ini bergantung kepada Rusia untuk 14 % peratus daripada perdagangan.

Kedua-dua Finland dan Lithuania telah dihubungi Brussels dengan aduan.

Jiran Scandinavia Norway, pengeksport besar ikan dan makanan laut ke Rusia, akan kehilangan kepada syarikat-syarikat ikan domestik, yang telah menyaksikan harga saham melambung selepas pengenalan sekatan perdagangan.

Who is hit hardest by Russia's trade ban?

Germany and Poland will lose the most trade with Russia, and neighboring Finland and Baltic states Lithuania and Latvia will lose a bigger proportion of their GDP. Norway will see fish sales to Russia disappear, and US damages would be very limited.

Russia has banned imports of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish and dairy products from the 28 countries of the EU, the US, Canada, Norway, and Australia for one year.

EU trade is heavily dependent on Russian food imports. Last year Russia bought $16 billion worth of food from the bloc, or about 10 percent of total exports, according to Eurostat.

In terms of losses, Germany, Poland and the Netherlands- the top three EU food suppliers to Russia in 2013 - will be hit hardest. Food for Russia makes up around 3.3 percent of total German exports.

French Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll said his government is already working together with Germany and Poland to reach a coordinated policy on the new Russian sanction regime.

Last year, Ireland exported €4.5 million worth of cheese to Russia, and not being able to do so this year is a big worry, Simon Coveney, the country’s agriculture minister, said.

Farmers across Europe could face big losses if they aren’t able to find alternative markets for their goods, especially fruit and vegetables.

Some are already demanding their governments provide compensation for lost revenue.

“If there isn’t a sufficient market, prices will go down, and we don’t know if we can cover the costs of production, because it is so expensive,” Jose Emilio Bofi, an orange farmer in Spain, told RT.

The largest opposition party in Greece is urging its government drop sanctions against Russia, even if the move isn’t supported by other EU states.

In 2013, Denmark supplied Russia with $628 million worth of products which are now banned.

European Agriculture commissioners will set up a task force to address Russia’s sanctions, on Monday.

Border States

Lithuania and Finland, which both share a border with Russia, could be hit hard by the new restrictions.

Now a member of the EU and NATO, Lithuania is still closely linked economically with Russia. Banned exports account for 2.5 percent of the country’s GDP, according to an estimate by Capital Economics.

Vegetable and foodstuffs are among Lithuania’s top five exports.

Finland’s dairy industry stands to lose up to $535 million (€400 million) in the trade spat. The country depends on Russia for 14 percent of its trade.

Both Finland and Lithuania have already contacted Brussels with complaints.

Scandinavian neighbor Norway, a large exporter of fish and seafood to Russia, will lose out to domestic fish companies, which have seen their share prices soar after the introduction of the trade restrictions.

Reuters/Brian Snyder

Amerika tidak peduli

Bagi Amerika Syarikat kesannya akan menjadi sangat terhad, kerana eksport pertanian ke Rusia adalah kira-1/10 daripada 1 % peratus daripada jumlah keluaran dalam negeri kasar kira-kira $144 billion, menurut Jabatan Pertanian Amerika Syarikat.

Eksport makanan Amerika Syarikat ke Rusia pada tahun 2013 berjumlah kurang daripada 1 % peratus daripada jumlah eksport pertanian negara, Jabatan Pertanian Amerika Syarikat berkata kepada RIA Novosti. Sebaliknya, eksport Rusia ke Amerika Syarikat dan Eropah adalah 13 % peratus daripada KDNK. Pada tahun 2013, Amerika Syarikat dieksport $1.3 billion barangan makanan ke Rusia, kira-kira 1/4 daripadanya adalah produk ayam.

Setakat ini Amerika Syarikat, Kesatuan Eropah, Kanada, Australia, Norway dan tidak memberi respons kepada langkah-langkah balas Rusia.

Apa yang dalam larangan untuk Rusia?

Sekatan perdagangan serta-merta akan mewujudkan jurang $9.5 billion dalam pasaran makanan Rusia yang perlu diisi. Rusia sedang berunding dengan negara-negara Latin American mengisi lubang ini dengan daging dari Brazil dan keju dari New Zealand.

Rusia juga mengadakan perbincangan dgn ahli2 Kesatuan Kastam Kazakhstan dan Belarus, yg akan meminta untuk mengelakkan transit barangan Barat ke Rusia.

Menjanjikan untuk membangunkan industri sendiri & melindungi ekonomi, Rusia akan menyokong langkah-langkah baru di rumah, dan telah diberikan $ 50 bilion kepada petani.

Walau bagaimanapun, beberapa penganalisis bimbang ia tidak akan cukup, dan harga makanan akan meningkat, semakin teruk lagi masalah inflasi Rusia. Inflasi yg lebih tinggi bukan sahaja akan mencederakan mereka yg membeli barangan runcit, tetapi juga sectors eksport Rusia - minyak, gas, logam, dan perlombongan.

Restoran harus menyesuaikan diri, kerana mereka mendapatkan hampir 50 % peratus daripada hasil mereka dari luar negara, menurut OAO Rosinter Restoran Holding, mengendalikan 370 restoran di Moscow, Bloomberg News melaporkan.

America not bothered

For the US the effect will be very limited, as agricultural exports to Russia are about one tenth of one percent of total US gross domestic product of about $144 billion, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

US food exports to Russia in 2013 amounted to less than 1 percent of the country’s total agricultural exports, the US Department of Agriculture said to RIA Novosti. Conversely, Russian exports to the US and European markets are 13 percent of its GDP. In 2013, the US exported $1.3 billion of food goods to Russia, about a quarter of which were poultry products.

So far the US, EU, Canada, Australia, and Norway haven’t responded to Russia’s retaliatory measures.

What's in the ban for Russia?

The immediate trade restrictions will create a $9.5 billion gap in Russia’s food market that needs to be filled. Russia is in talks with Latin American countries on how to fill this hole with meat from Brazil and cheese from New Zealand.

Russia is also holding talks with Custom Union members Kazakhstan and Belarus, which it will ask to prevent any transit of Western goods into Russia.

Promising to develop its own industries and protect the economy, Russia will support the new measures at home, and has already allotted $50 billion to farmers.

However, some analysts fear it won’t be enough, and that food prices will rise, further worsening Russia’s inflation problem. Higher inflation will not only hurt those buying groceries, but also Russia’s export sectors- oil, gas, metals, and mining.

Restaurants will have to adapt, as they source nearly 50 percent of their produce from abroad, according to OAO Rosinter Restaurants Holding, which operates 370 restaurants in Moscow, Bloomberg News reported.

READ MORE: http://on.rt.com/vmsyxt